![]() However, it is a simple knob that can be turned on or off, or switched to different modes. As Bill mentions on his blog, transponders fail all the time, and the only way pilots know about it is when ATC tells us. ![]() Two minutes later, at 01:21, the transponder is lost (switched off or fails).No duress, and no sinister under tone suggesting a diabolical plot from the crew. “All right, good night”: the last radio transmission from MH370, at 01:19 (local departure time the flight had departed at 12:41 am.) To Bill and me, both veteran airline captains, this sounds like an absolutely standard sign off.We will also add our take about each bullet point: Of course, the challenge for us is to figure out, what is the “most likely?” Put another way, Occam’s Razor could be stated thus: statistically, what are the best odds? Or, if you prefer, that which is most likely, is most likely. A shining modern example would be Einstein’s E=MC2. In short, the simplest explanation tends to be the most likely. The principle refers to William of Ockham’s philosophical musings in the 12th Century on the establishment of any theory or hypothesis. Since Sir William Hamilton coined the phrase in 1852, Occam’s Razor has become a pillar of scientific theory and logical thought. Then let’s put those facts under the microscope of a scientific investigative theory that’s known as Occam’s Razor. For starters, let’s sort fact from fiction. Perhaps it’s time we all step back, take a collective deep breath, come back down to earth and take a look at this mystery from the bottom up. says in his excellent article, while all possible angles must be investigated by authorities, I feel the media feeding frenzy is an insult not only to the captain, first officer and their loved ones, but to the pilot profession as a whole. Phil-style psych profiling of the pilots themselves.Īs NYCA Editor Phil Derner, Jr. The 24-hour news feeds, armed with a scant dearth of facts (and no end to the self-proclaimed “experts”) have nothing to show for it besides microscopic dissections of transponders, sketchy “eyewitness” reports, and - perhaps most absurd of all - the armchair, Dr. While the potential debris field recently discovered in the south Indian Ocean offers hope, the world has had two weeks filled with misdirection, red herrings, wild speculation and myriad theories being bandied about that range from the absurd to the preposterous. For this article, however, in keeping with NYCA’s journalistic creed, they adhere solely to the facts.įor 14 days now, the world has followed the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines 370. ![]() On both Captain Palmer and Eric Auxier’s blogs, they provide educated analysis on “what could have happened”, and their pieces are strikingly similar. Editor’s note: the author wishes to express gratitude to Bill Palmer, Airbus 330 captain and author of Understanding Air France 447, in lending his expertise to this piece.
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